Allan Lichtman, the historian known for accurately predicting the past nine of ten elections, has announced his conclusion for this election; Kamala Harris will take the White House in November.
In 1981, Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok created a prediction system for presidential elections, “The Keys to the White House.” This system consists of 13 true or false questions that ignore the polls but rather assesses the White House party. If five or fewer items on the list are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win. However, if six or more items are false, the challenging party is predicted to win.
So what are these 13 key ideas and how did Lichtman conclude that Harris will win? For example, the first key includes whether the White House party gained seats between midterm elections. At the last midterm election in 2022, the Democratic party lost seats in the House of Representatives, so this key is false, (which is good for Trump.) Another key is whether or not the White House has made major changes to national policy. Throughout Biden’s term, for instance, the United States has rejoined the Paris Accords regarding climate change, and signed the infrastructure bill, so this bill is clearly true. Finally, whether or not there’s been any scandal in the White House. Although there’s been questions regarding Biden’s age and capabilities after the presidential debate back in June, there has been no bipartisan recognition regarding any scandal, so this key is true.
After analyzing each key, Harris is overwhelmingly predicted to win, according to Lichtman. He describes, “The Keys show that what counts in presidential elections is governing…not packaging, image making, or campaigning. If candidates understood how elections really worked, they would avoid the empty, scripted, and consultant-driven campaigns that the American people have too often endured.”
Using this system, Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, excluding the 2000 election, where Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore. In 2016, Lichtman was one of few who predicted that Donald Trump would secure the election against Hillary Clinton.
Although this system is highly accurate and fascinating to learn about, the official result and validity of Lichtman’s prediction will be revealed in November.